Research Summary Video: Certainties and Sensitivity Analysis of the Global Economy: A GDP by End-Use Approach

This research analyses, in the first instance, the evolution of four of the GDP by end-use variables (Household Consumption, Government Spending, Exports, and Imports) related to the top 40 economies in the world, covering up to 90% of the global economy. The first part of the research project is determined by a longitudinal analysis of 40+ years, resulting in a linear regression to the expected GDP value of each nation for 2030. Secondly, both a Monte Carlo and a sensitivity simulation analysis are performed. The analysis reveals that the most sensitive variables that contribute to the dispersion of the GDP by end-use future results are imports, followed by exports. Also, Household Consumption appears with a small presence, while the Government Spending factor shows no sensitivity in the model. This research demonstrates the crucial importance of adjusting the balance of trade. Keywords: Global Economy, GDP by End-Use, Monte Carlo Simulations, Sensitivity Analysis, Balance of Trade, GDP Forecast, GDP Evolution, Linear Regression, Country Economic Perspectives, Statistical Analysis, Economic Modelling